Beware Of All Autocrats

May 11, 2022
I have become convinced after reading for days everything I can find about Russia and its war on the Ukraine that Russia will fall into obscurity for generations to come (actually it will just begin with Putin’s inevitable fall). And I agree with those who warn of what happens when an autocrat falls, leaving a power vacuum. This isn’t a fairy tale ending with the rescue of Cinderella and her elevation to “her rightful place with royalty.” (An abominable concept given the past history of “royals” running real nations.)

So I really believe this is all about autocrats especially the ones still ruling today. The case in hand is of course Vladimir Putin who was originally an obscure figure in the Soviet KGB. Just as other well known autocrats became threats to whole regions and even the whole world, Putin’s original motive came out of his observation of the disintegration of the previous “beloved autocracy.” To men like Putin, it’s like loving one’s mother and father: they are the source of your very security and are your protectors.

Hitler followed the same kind of logic. He dreamt of restoring “Germany’s greatness” just a Putin continues to dream of restoring “Russia’s greatness.” And it’s not a coincidence that both equate greatness with autocratic government. And what happened when Hitler was forced to suicide? It led to the immediate rise of Joseph Stalin who established the Russian Soviet autocracy as a world power. Ah, “greatness”, what a nightmare.

But Putin’s great miscalculation lies in his inability to see his own country as one with over a thousand years of brutal rulers. Basically, brutal government is all the Russian people know. And let’s not leave out the fact that it was Russia’s great emptiness that led to the failure of the Nazi Wehrmacht (the Nazi forces between 1935 and 1945). That and the use of millions of Russian conscripts as mere cannon fodder. It was the distance the Wehrmacht had to go before getting to within 80 kilometers (50 miles) of Moscow. German forces had to travel hundreds of miles and had to traverse most of the those miles “living off the land” just like today’s Russian forces are having to do. Only today the Russian armed forces are proving the opposite by failing to provide all that’s needed by their fighters (also conscripts who weren’t even told where they were going.). The Ukrainian forces have so far killed nine Russian generals and forty colonels. No other example exists in the last century of warfare. It’s an unparalleled achievement of the Ukrainian armed forces.

Surely, Putin must think this is a betrayal by his own generals so if he holds onto power we can expect some more dead Russian generals by “friendly fire” — directed by Vladimir Putin himself.

And we are also seeing how quickly the Russian economy is being destroyed. Nothing like this has been seen since the hyper inflation that brought Germany’s economy to its knees one hundred years ago.

Putin has tried to style the current situation as being “anti Nazi” when there are few if any real Nazis anywhere. (How like America’s Democratic Party — using exactly the same words as Putin’s. They are “anti fascist” and “anti Nazi” and are claiming it’s “a crisis.” Really frightening. )

But back to autocrat Putin. The fact that Finland is seriously thinking of joining NATO may or may not be the final turning point in the West. There are still lingering “liberal pacifists” everywhere but they have lost ground and are generally ignored now that Europe and the U.S. are seeing how their aid to the Ukraine is paying off. As a matter of personal knowledge I can say that Finland has been cooperating behind the scenes with NATO for at least forty years. Norway hosted a number of joint exercises that included divisions of U.S. Marines since at least the 1980s. Most people know by now that it’s because Norway shares 196 kilometers (122 miles) of border with Russia that Russia now want’s to keep Finland out of NATO. And Finland fought the Russians to a standstill back in 1918 and 1939. See what I mean about Russian futility?

Before going on I want to make note of the fact that all the known autocrats of the past and today exhibit a strong consistent thread of sadism. Hitler — obviously took sadistic joy in the prolonged suffering of Jews in his concentration camps. Many other Nazi officials (like Himmler) also took sadistic joy in their “job.” And certainly everyone remembers Sadist Stalin and Sadist Mao (who once talked about his “excitement” when watching the many executions he ordered). Now we have Sadist Putin hearing reports of the bombed hospitals and libraries and bomb shelters in the Ukraine. As if he relishes the images of dead Ukrainian mothers and children. If he feels any repulsion it’s never manifested. No, he is sadistically pleased at the crimes against humanity he is directing all by himself.

But there are two main threats coming out of all of this. The first I think is how the power vacuum left by Putin’s inevitable end will be filled and by whom. We know only that the Russians are historically bound to gravitate toward another autocrat. There doesn’t seem to be any way to rescue them from themselves.

The second of course is what kind of Russia will emerge, what kind of relationship should the rest of the world have with Russia?

As to problem number one: I personally have come to the conclusion that what the Western World has failed to do is to develop a societal solution to all potential autocrats. I think there should be more studies of the autocrat’s development and evolution and on how to keep them from becoming so intensely devoted to imaginary “lost greatness.” A key feature of developing autocrats is that they always need some great enemy who they believe is behind the loss of imagined greatness. This is an ego issue, I’m sure of that much.

In the West we see real racists — who all firmly believe (no matter how impossible it is) that some race is behind the threat to “our great country.” And if they’re like the racists I have personally encountered, they really have ego issues and are over compensating for perceived smallness and or weakness.

I posit that it’s a matter of establishing our own good will toward all and strongly defending our good will toward our fellow humans (yes, while taking into account our species isn’t the nicest species possible).

Let’s call it our Campaign against the Travis Bickle Types. (You do know the story line from the 1976 movie, “Taxi,” don’t you?)

As for problem number two: I don’t think we’ll know what kind of Russia will emerge over the next ten years or so. But I do know that one way to truncate the effect will be on the rest of us is to first arrange for migration out of Russia for all those fleeing autocracy. There’s already a surge of such refugees in progress. We do need however to carefully examine the whole of them to reduce the number of those who are just bringing their own unwanted beliefs and tendencies with them. We’ve already seen that happen in countries which opened to refugees from the Middle East. So “trust but verify” must again be the watch word for those countries allowing refugees from highly suspect Russia. Hopefully the exodus will further reduce and weaken whatever kind of Russia comes out of all of this. And for those who remain in Russia it will be necessary for the West to recognize and resolve to isolate that country as much as possible. Let them figuratively stew in their own juices- as long a time as necessary.

None of this is going to be easy.

But some beliefs I’ve put into practice include:
Never initiate the use of force or fraud.
Always try to awaken as a better person than you were yesterday (or last year or last decade).
Honesty is the product of accuracy and completeness. Trust is the product of honesty.
Beware of all autocrats and autocracies.