You are clearly on the mark when you say that just the fact there is discussion of "possible" defeat and further (dismissive) talk of being tried at The Hague is evidence that the collapse of at least the war effort is not too far in the future.

Lets also enjoy remembering how many of us wondered "how is it possible Russian forces can be so bad" back in March of this year. It is almost funny to remember how many times we were dumbfounded at the level of weakness and incompetence in what was supposed to be a formidable military force.