Your article supports my suspicion that the talk about negotiations with Putin are more probably put out there by Putin's propaganda and intelligence agents and agencies.
I think those publishing such dribble even here on Medium may be part of this either because those writers are sympathetic to Putin's autocracy or because they want to add to our confusion. (Trolling is present everywhere on the Internet - just plain fact.)
And I agree, there is always imprecision in guessing but the overall situation with Russian troops in such dire condition even before winter sets in makes it highly probable that Putin won't even be able to keep any of the ground gained so far. Next summer may see the Ukraine "Russian free." Better even than gluten free cookies. (a little joke)
Besides, Ukraine is right now sitting on 2.4 trillion cubic meters of untapped natural gas. So in the long run, paying off war debt wont be that hard and Germany will have another alternative to Russian natural gas.
Looking forward to your next article. Happy holidays.